Ceiling finder
Tonight's players most likely to score 6x their salary on DraftKings (a $7,000 player scoring 42+), the kind of night that wins tournaments. For building lineups by hand: start from the top, mix in your own reads.
How it works
Each player's chance comes from his projected value (points per $1,000), projected points and minutes, and tonight's opponent's DvP at his position. Tested on every night of last season with salaries (14,000+ player games):
- About 1 in 4 rotation players (15+ projected minutes) hit 6x on a given night.
- Each night's top 10 by this chance hit 6x about 38% of the time, and were in that night's best possible lineup about 20% of the time (2.5x the average player).
- A top-5 matchup added about 2-3 points of chance over what the projection alone suggested; a bottom-5 matchup took about 2 off. "From matchup" shows that part for each player.
- Value is by far the biggest factor, so the top of this list looks a lot like a sort by value, nudged by the matchup. Vegas lines, recent form and how streaky a player is added nothing beyond the projection.
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